Election 2018: Orange County GOP battles an increasingly blue electorate

While Orange County Republicans fight to hold their four congressional seats in today’s election, they’re up against a Democratic wave that’s been building for 28 years.

In 1990, the county GOP’s 22-percentage point voter-registration advantage over Democrats marked an apex in one of the party’s most famous strongholds.

That edge has been shrinking ever since and is now a negligible 1.2 points. The county’s Asian voters, once a reliable GOP vote, saw their registration swing in favor of Democrats earlier this year. Latino voters, who now prefer the Democratic Party by 35 points, are 20 percent of the electorate and growing.

Perhaps even more significantly, the county’s young voters have flipped. The cohort that once overwhelming favored Republicans now prefers the Democratic Party by a nearly 2-1 margin, according to Political Data Inc.

“The mere idea of Orange County turning purple, turning blue makes my head spin,” said Rep. Lou Correa, D-Santa Ana. “To finally see it happen is unbelievable.”

In 1996, when Correa first ran for office — an unsuccessful bid for state Assembly — Republicans held every congressional, state legislative and county Board of Supervisors seat. He’s since helped lead Democrats’ incursion, winning election to the Assembly in 1998, to the Board of Supervisors in 2004, to the state Senate in 2006 and to Congress in 2016.

Democrats now hold two of the county’s congressional seats and are making closely watched bids for the other four. Those four seats could prove decisive in whether Democrats gain control of the House this year:

In coastal Orange County, 15-term Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa, is being challenged by Democrat Harley Rouda. In a district that extends from Laguna Hills to Anaheim Hills, GOP Rep. Mimi Walters is being challenged by Democrat Katie Porter.

In the district straddling the Orange-San Diego county line, Democrat Mike Levin is running against Republican Diane Harkey for the seat of retiring Rep. Darrell Issa, R- Vista. In a district that includes parts of Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties, Democrat Gil Cisneros is running against Republican Young Kim for the seat of retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton.

Key trends

Opposition to President Donald Trump is fueling many Democratic candidates and activists this election — and it may have also helped accelerate momentum toward the tipping point where Democratic voters overtake Republicans in what the local GOP long dubbed “America’s Most Republican County.”

Here are the county’s key voter-registration trends driving that transformation:

• Democrats have closed the gap by holding its voter share while GOP’s older voters die and are replaced on the rolls by young, independent voters — and to a lesser extent, by Republicans re-registering as independents. In 1990, Republicans edge over Democrats was 56 percent to 34 percent. Today, it’s 34.7 percent to 33.5 percent.
• As recently as 2002, voters under 34 favored the GOP 42 percent to 29 percent. Today, people of that age favor Democrats 38 percent to 20 percent. Voters ages 35 to 44 also favor Democrats. Voters 44 and older prefer the GOP, with the Republican advantage biggest among those over 70.
• In 2002, Latinos were 18 percent of registered voters and favored Democrats over Republicans 53 percent to 28 percent. Today, they are 20 percent of voters and prefer Democrats 52 percent to 17 percent.
• In 2002, Asians were 9 percent of registered voters and favored Republicans 40 percent to 31 percent. Now they are 15 percent of voters and prefer Democrats 30 percent to 29 percent. While Republicans still have the edge among Vietnamese, Democrats are more popular among East Indians, Filipinos and Koreans. Chinese and Japanese are almost evenly divided.

However, Republicans have a history of outperforming Democrats when its comes to turnout, something Correa has experience first hand.

When he first ran for Assembly, he lost despite Democrats holding a registration edge in his central Orange County district. That was repeated when he ran for a second stint as county supervisor, in 2014, and again in a 2015 special election.

“The key is going to be turnout,” he said of today’s election. “The voter registration is there, it’s going to depend on turnout.”

That’s especially true with the two demographic groups that have been essential to Democrats closing the gap with Republican in the county.

“Latinos and young people are notorious for not turning out,” he said.

This story will be updated through the afternoon and evening with comments from both parties.