Orange County bosses will trim hiring by 9,250 jobs in ’19, Chapman forecasts

Orange County bosses will add 28,000 workers next year, Chapman University economists are predicting — 9,250 fewer hires than the county average in the previous four years.

Chapman’s semiannual forecast shows Orange County jobs will grow 1.7 percent in 2019. In 2014-18, hiring averaged 38,750 jobs a year or a  2.5 percent annual pace.

So more cooling is in store if Chapman’s vision is correct. Here are 11 other highlights of the 2019 forecast and how that compared with the previous four-year averages.

1. Manufacturing employment will be flat next year. In 2014-18, hiring ran 500 jobs a year.

2. Professional and business services, a well-paid group, will add 9,000 workers or 2.9 percent growth. That’s on par with the 2014-18 pace.

3. Leisure and hospitality, often cited as an example of low-wage work, will add 7,000 positions or 3.1 percent growth. In 2014-18, hiring averaged 7,750 jobs a year.

4. Construction jobs will fall by 1,000 workers or a 0.9 percent slip. In 2014-18, hiring averaged 5,750 jobs a year.

5. As for real estate transactions, sales of existing single-family and condos will fall by 1,468 (4.7 percent) to 29,736. In 2014-18, sales averaged 32,109.

6. Housing affordability remains a challenge. The median single-family home price is expected to rise to $845,000, up 2.8 percent. Gains averaged 4.63 percent yearly in 2014-18.

7. New construction will slump. Single-family home starts of 4,191 will be down 480 or 10.3 percent. In 2014-18, sales averaged 4,261 starts a year.

8. Multifamily starts will fall, too: 4,657 — down 219 or off 4.5 percent change. In 2014-18, starts averaged 6,440 yearly.

9. Development means construction of one housing unit for every 3.2 jobs created in ’19 vs. 2014-18 average of one unit per 3.6 new jobs.

10. Countywide personal income will be a combined $230 billion, up 5.5 percent vs. gains averaging 5.65 percent yearly in 2014-18.

11. Most folks will spend more on non-real estate items. Taxable sales will total $69 billion, up 3.14 percent vs. gains averaging 2.72 percent yearly in 2014-18.