Orange County population growth cut in half in 2018

Orange County’s population growth has been halved as more folks move elsewhere and foreign immigration grows slowly.

In the year ended July 1, Orange County’s population rose 10,962 — 0.34 percent — to 3.22 million, No. 3 among California’s counties. But these fresh state demographic statistics show that yearly growth of residents is down 55 percent vs. an average 24,304 annually in the previous five years.

It’s not just a matter of pride. Industries such as retailing and real estate rely on population growth for new customers. Businesses need more workers these days, and the government seeks new taxpayers.

Let’s look at four key reasons why population growth has cooled …

1. Net outmigration: Exits to elsewhere in the state or out of state minus the number of new arrivals was a 23,743 outflow in the past year vs. an average 10,741 net outflow in 2013-17. That’s a surge of 121 percent vs. a 68 percent gain statewide.

2. Foreign immigration: A long-running population boost, legal or otherwise. The number of new residents who lived in another country the previous year was 17,676 for 2018 vs. an average 16,247 in 2013-17 — that’s up 9 percent vs. a 7 percent gain statewide.

3. Deaths:  In a sign of our aging society, local deaths rose to 20,506 vs. an average 19,130 in 2013-17. That’s up 7.2 percent vs. a 7.1 percent gain statewide.

4. Births: As young adults put off child-rearing, the number of newborn children has fallen to 37,535 vs. an average 37,928 in 2013-17 — down 1 percent vs. a 5.7 percent drop statewide.

Some folks, many of whom think the region’s too crowded, may believe slower population growth is a positive trend. A crowded county means more congestion — both in neighborhoods and on roads — which boosts the local cost of living and makes California look less appealing.

But numerous businesses and their employees, for example, thrive on population expansion. Plus, the shrinking birth rate raises questions about who will be the county’s next generation of workers.

Statewide population trends are similar: Up 214,625 in the year — 0.54 percent to — 39.83 million, but the growth rate is down 31 percent vs. 313,057 in the previous five years.

Regionally, the slow-growth story is repeated: In the four counties covered by the Southern California News Group, the population rose 70,379 in the year — 0.39 percent — to 18.09 million, but the growth rate is down 43 percent vs. 123,465 in the previous five years.