National Republicans will take aim at 4 Orange County House seats lost to Democrats last year

National Republicans in 2020 plan to take extra effort to reclaim all seven California House seats they lost to Democrats last year, a challenging undertaking in what’s likely to be a contentious presidential election.

The seven districts – five of which are in Southern California – are a significant portion of the 55 Democrat-held congressional seats Republicans are targeting nationally in an effort to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a list released Friday by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

Republicans hope to reverse the momentum of Democrats’ 40-seat gain in the 2018 midterms, a pickup that included sweeping the GOP from federal power in Orange County, once a reliable Republican stronghold. Nationally, the GOP  will need to flip at least 18 Democrat-held seats in order to retake the House.

The California seats targeted by the NRCC are represented by Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Harley Rouda (D-Newport Beach), Gil Cisneros (D-Yorba Linda), Mike Levin (D- Dana Point), Katie Hill (D-Palmdale), T.J. Cox (D-Bakersfield), and Josh Harder (D-Modesto).

“We are hard at work recruiting strong, accomplished Republican candidates who will deliver our message of individual freedom and hold these targeted members accountable for the radical policies being pushed by the socialist Democrats in their party,” NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer said in a prepared statement.

In March, the NRCC opened its first West Coast office, locating it in Irvine with a lease through 2020. At the time the group said it was committed to fighting to keep the Orange County seats from flipping blue. Now, the West Coast party operatives will mount an effort to win back what they lost.

Republicans hold voter registration advantages in three of seven targeted districts – represented by Democrats Porter, Rouda and Levin – and local GOP politicos still view the Porter and Rouda seats as fundamentally conservative areas that can be won back given the right Republican candidate. In CA-21, Cox won the seat by only 862 votes in November, making it one of the closest federal races in the nation.

But other factors could benefit Democrats in 2020. Voters in all of the targeted California districts favored Hillary Clinton over Trump in the 2016 presidential election, and polling has shown the president remains unpopular among those voters. Democrats also tend to vote in higher numbers in presidential elections than in midterms, meaning higher overall turnout could hinder GOP efforts to reclaim its lost seats.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – the NRCC’s equivalent on the left, which also has an Irvine office – noted that Republicans haven’t defeated a Democratic House incumbent in California in 12 election cycles. Cole Leiter, a DCCC spokesman, said the GOP had done nothing to distance itself from its tax-system overhaul and attempts to repeal Obamacare, policies Democrats have credited with helping to oust California Republican incumbents.

“If Washington Republicans think they are going to win seats in California, or elsewhere, running on the same deeply unpopular agenda… then they have a very long couple of years ahead of them,” Leiter said.

While the NRCC is the official national arm of the Republican Party tasked with helping the GOP win seats in Congress, it’s not the biggest spender on independent expenditures for Republican candidates. That distinction falls to the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican Super PAC tied to former House Speaker Paul Ryan, which could ultimately decide where GOP resources are focused in 2020.

In 2018, the CLF spent $24.9 million across five of California’s seven competitive house races – nine times more than the NRCC.